The 2022 season has come and gone, and the Kansas City Chiefs are Super Bowl champions after an unreal night in Glendale, Arizona.
Let’s take a little time now to recap the season from a betting perspective and get ourselves ready for 2023.
Against The Spread
The Giants finished the season 14-5 ATS with a $100 bettor up $787, making New York the most profitable team against the spread in the NFL. In just the regular season, the Giants were 13-4 ATS, also the top team in the NFL.
At 13-4 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $796, it’s the best season for the Giants since going 12-4 ATS back in 2008.
Where the Giants did their most damage was as an underdog. They were 10-2 ATS as a dog during the regular season, the 2nd-most profitable season for a dog in the Bet Labs database.
Best ATS Regular Season as Underdogs Last 20 Years
- 2012 Rams 11-3 ATS (+$756) == Missed playoffs
- 2022 Giants 10-2 ATS (+$718) == L, Divisional Round
- 2006 Saints 9-2 ATS (+$704) == L, Conf Champ
- 2006 Titans 10-3 ATS (+$675) == Missed playoffs
- 2004 Chargers 8-1-1 ATS (+$641) == L, Wild Card
Tom Brady went 4-12-1 ATS during the regular season. A $100 bettor would have been down $846, giving him the worst regular season for a quarterback in the last 20 years.
Least Profitable QB ATS Single Season Last 20 Years
- 2022 Tom Brady: 4-12-1 ATS (-$846)
- 2007 Marc Bulger: 2-10 ATS (-$838)
- 2008 David Garrard: 4-12 ATS (-$827)
- 2019 Mitch Trubisky: 3-11-1 ATS (-$813)
Pretty amazing to hear that the most profitable over team won a $100 bettor only $473 this past season and no other team was +$300 or more.
Ironically enough, the top three teams to the over this season were the Vikings, Bears and Lions … all teams from the NFC North.
Over the last three seasons, the Vikings are 34-16-1 (68%) to the over, the most profitable team in the NFL, making a bettor $1,554 (a 30.5% ROI).
Both the Jets and Titans finished the season 12-5 to the under, but the Jets profited an extra $5 on the season due to a little more juice on Tennessee’s under lines along the way.
Unders were the cash cow overall this year, with an amazing 15 of the 32 teams profiting a $100 bettor at least $200 simply betting unders this season.
Jets unders profited a bettor $606 this season. In the last 20 years, the only Jets season to turn a profit for under bettors even close to that was in 2007, just +$277.
Giants are atop the ATS standings and now they are at the top of the moneyline standings, too. New York finished 10-8-1 straight up with a $100 bettor up $627.
Best Giants Seasons on Moneyline Last 20 Years
- 2007: 14-5 SU (+$1,497)
- 2011: 13-7 SU (+$1,279)
- 2022: 10-8-1 SU (+$627)
The Broncos went 5-12 straight up on the moneyline this season, the least profitable team for bettors.
Denver lost a $100 bettor $860 this season, the worst year on the moneyline for the Broncos in the last 20 years.
Russell Wilson began his career 107-52-1 straight up between 2012 and 2020. Betting Wilson would have made you $1,239. Life was good. Over the last two seasons, Wilson is 10-19 straight up, losing that bettor $1,078.
Futures & Awards
The Kansas City Chiefs cashed in for their bettors at +1000 odds entering the regular season, which ranked third in the NFL behind the Bills and Buccaneers.
With the Chiefs cashing at 10-1, we may not be seeing that type of number again on K.C. for a little while.
Kansas City Preseason Odds to Win Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes:
- 2022: +1000
- 2021, 2020: +450
- 2019: +600
- 2018: +3000
Back in February, Mahomes opened at +700 to win the MVP this season, the co-favorite to win the award with Aaron Rodgers.
By the time the season got underway, Mahomes was +800 to win the award, which was only behind the favorite, Josh Allen at +700.
At +800 odds, Mahomes would have the 2nd-shortest preseason MVP odds for the winner since 2015, behind just Tom Brady, who was +400 back in 2017.
For just the 7th time in NFL history, the same player won the regular season and Super Bowl MVP in a single season.
- 2022-23: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
- 1998-99: Kurt Warner, Rams
- 1993-94: Steve Young, 49ers
- 1992-93: Emmitt Smith, Cowboys
- 1988-89: Joe Montana, 49ers
- 1977-78: Terry Bradshaw, Steelers
- 1966-67: Bart Starr, Packers
Mahomes is now one of five QBs with multiple Super Bowl MVP trophies, joining Eli Manning, Tom Brady, Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw.
With Mahomes winning Super Bowl MVP at +130 odds, 11 of the last 14 Super Bowl MVPs have been under 10-1 odds (Edelman, Von Miller, Malcolm Smith), with 13 of the last 17 at 6-1 or lower.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Sauce Gardner, CB, Jets
Teams to have both the DROY and OROY in the same season in the Super Bowl era:
- 2022 Jets: Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner
- 2017 Saints: Marshon Lattimore, Alvin Kamara
- 1967 Lions: Mel Farr, Lem Barney
Offensive Player of the Year: Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
Defensive Player of the Year: Nick Bosa, DE, 49ers
Comeback Player of the Year: Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks
Odds: n/a (+6000 when first listed)
Coach of the Year: Brian Daboll, New York Giants
This year, six of the eight division winners had preseason odds of under +200 (Bills, Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles, Buccaneers and 49ers).
The two outliers were the Vikings at +240 and the Jaguars at +750. If you think those Jags odds are long, the Bengals won the AFC North last year at a whopping +2500 odds.
Season Leader Props
|Rec. TDs||Rush Yds||Rush TDs||Sacks|
|15 INT||128 rec.
|14 TDs||1,653 yds||17 TDs||18.5 sacks|
Single Game Milestones
The Cowboys were 17.5-point favorites against the Texans back in December. Dallas ended up winning the game 27-23, failing to cover the big number. Second-highest was Eagles in Week 18 against the Giants. Closed as 17-point favorites and also won but failed to cover the spread.
As 13.5-point underdogs, the Panthers upset Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. It was Brady’s 2nd-worst ATS loss over the past 20 years and the biggest upset for Carolina in two decades.
In October, the Bills-Chiefs game had an over/under of 55.5, ultimately the highest total of the season. The game went under the total, finishing 24-20 with the Bills in front.
The day before Christmas turned into a windy winter wonderland in Cleveland. The total closed at 32.5, which was the lowest over/under in any game since 2010.
Freezing temperatures and heavy winds are expected for the Browns – Saints game on Saturday and player prop markets @BetMGM reflect that…
• Andy Dalton: O/U 150.5 passing yards
• Deshaun Watson: O/U 155.5 passing yards pic.twitter.com/henhwCheo3
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) December 22, 2022
Win Totals & Make/Miss Playoffs
Here are the full win total results for all 32 teams. Overs went 16-15-1, with teams listed with a double-digit win total going 5-7 to the over this season.
Of the 14 teams to make the playoffs this season, here are the longest odds:
Of the 16 teams to miss the playoffs this season, here are the longest odds:
Notes, Trends & More
Which team with 100-1 or higher odds to win the Super Bowl will make the playoffs next season?
We’ve seen it now happen in each of the last four seasons:
- 2022: Giants (150-1), Jaguars (150-1) & Seahawks (200-1)
- 2021: Eagles (100-1) & Bengals (150-1)
- 2020: Washington (300-1)
- 2019: Bills (100-1)
Here are the three teams with 100-1 odds or higher as of now on BetMGM for 2023-24 season: Colts (150-1), Cardinals (250-1) and Texans (300-1).
49ers became the 3rd team since 2002 to win 7 games straight up vs. their own division in a season, including the playoffs: 2022 49ers, 2008 Steelers & 2002 Steelers.
When a road team was favored this season, the under went 68-35-1 (66%). When a road team was favored by less than a FG, the under went 25-8-1 (76%). Over the last five years, this trend has turned a +5.5% ROI.
The Patriots finished this season 7-9-1 ATS, tied for their worst ATS win pct over the last 20 years. Their last season with a worse than 7-9-1 ATS record came back in 2002 when they went 6-10 ATS.
Rookie quarterbacks had a season to remember. They went 22-12 straight up and 24-10 against the spread this year, led by Brock Purdy, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Bailey Zappe, Sam Howell, Skyler Thompson and Anthony Brown.
The Bears have lost 9 consecutive games straight up vs. the NFC North and haven’t beaten a divisional opponent at Soldier Field since defeating the Lions in October of 2021. Chicago is 1-8 SU vs. the NFC North since 2020.
As if losing the Super Bowl isn’t enough. Since 2000, the loser of the Super Bowl has faced a tough time getting over their hangover in Week 1 of the following season. Super Bowl losers are 4-19 ATS.
In the Wild Card era, only two franchises have yet to enter a season with a double-digit win total: Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions. Cincinnati got close last year closing with a win total of 9.5.
Can the Joe Burrow magic continue? He is 32-17 against the spread and 34-14-1 against the second-half spread in his career. Since 2005, the full-game mark is the 7th-most profitable of any QB (of 246 QBs), and the second-half mark is the 2nd-most profitable.
With Tom Brady retiring, here are your active ATS profit leaders over the last 20 years according to Bet Labs ($100 per game):
- Aaron Rodgers: 139-100-5 ATS (+$3,258)
- Teddy Bridgewater: 44-22 ATS (+$2,009)
- Joe Burrow: 32-17 ATS (+$1,241)
- Jimmy Garoppolo: 37-25-1 ATS (+$984)
- Jared Goff: 57-46-2 ATS (+$777)