Friday, February 23, 2024

2023 Valero Texas Open odds, picks, field: Surprising PGA predictions from model that nailed 8 majors

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If J.J. Spaun is able to finish on top of the leaderboard this week at the 2023 Valero Texas Open, he’ll become the first golfer to successfully defend his title since Zach Johnson (2008-09). Spaun will have to stave off a number of serious contenders if he wants to rewrite the history books. Tyrrell Hatton, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama and Corey Conners are among the experienced players looking to dethrone Spaun and win the Valero Texas Open 2023. 

Play gets underway from TPC San Antonio on Thursday, March 30. Hatton enters this week’s event as the 13-1 favorite according to the latest 2023 Valero Texas Open odds. He’s followed by Conners (17-1), Fowler (20-1) and Si Woo Kim (21-1) on the PGA odds board. Before locking in your 2023 Valero Texas Open picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $8,100 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions, the American Express and the Genesis Invitational. The model also included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $1,100. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2023 Valero Texas Open field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2023 Valero Texas Open predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the Valero Texas Open 2023: Corey Conners, the 2019 champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and doesn’t even crack the top-five. Conners secured his maiden victory at this event in 2019, but it remains his only win on the PGA Tour. 

In addition, Conners has struggled mightily in recent weeks, finishing T-50 or worse in three of his last five starts, which includes a missed cut at the Players Championship earlier this month. Conners’ recent struggles can be directly attributed to his inconsistent putting. The 31-year-old enters this week’s event ranked 151st in strokes gained: putting (-.270), 181st in one-putt percentage (36.81%) and 189th in putts per round (29.63). He also ranks 100th in driving accuracy percentage (59.15%). He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Valero Texas Open 2023 field.

Another surprise: Matt Kuchar, a 28-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. Kuchar has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. 

Kuchar certainly has the game to finish near the top of the leaderboard this week. The 44-year-old has won nine times on the PGA Tour, and he’s finished inside the top-10 in two of his last four starts. Kuchar is currently ranked first in scrambling (70.92%), 26th in strokes gained: total (.940) and 28th in scoring average (69.61). He’s averaging 28.61 putts per round this season, but if he’s draining putts this week, he’ll have a great shot at finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Valero Texas Open. See who else to pick here

How to make 2023 Valero Texas Open picks

The model is also targeting four other golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s PGA picks here.

So who will win the Valero Texas Open 2023? And which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Valero Texas Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Valero Texas Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed eight golf majors, including last year’s Masters.

2023 Valero Texas Open odds, field

See the full Valero Texas Open 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Tyrrell Hatton +1300
Corey Conners +1700
Rickie Fowler +2000
Si Woo Kim +2100
Hideki Matsuyama +2400
Taylor Montgomery +2800
Matt Kuchar +2800
Chris Kirk +3100
Davis Riley +3400
J.J. Spaun +3400
Matt Wallace +3700
Ben Griffin +4100
Thomas Detry +4400
Cameron Davis +4400
Adam Schenk +4800
Taylor Pendrith +4800
Brendon Todd +4800
Alex Noren +4800
Aaron Rai +5000
Nick Taylor +5000
Davis Thompson +5000
Andrew Putnam +5000
Ryan Fox +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500
Nicolai Hojgaard +5500
Sam Ryder +5500
Alex Smalley +6500
Francesco Molinari +7000
Brandon Wu +7500
Will Gordon +8500
Tyler Duncan +8500
Ryan Palmer +8500
Luke List +8500
Emiliano Grillo +9000
Pierceson Coody +9000
Erik Van Rooyen +9000
Beau Hossler +9000
Sepp Straka +9000
Austin Eckroat +10000
Ben Martin +10000
Patton Kizzire +10000
S.H. Kim +10000
Byeong Hun An +10000
Robby Shelton +10000
Akshay Bhatia +10000
Trey Mullinax +10000
Eric Cole +10000
Hayden Buckley +10000
Harry Hall +10000
Nate Lashley +11000
Padraig Harrington +11000
Sam Stevens +11000
Garrick Higgo +11000
David Lingmerth +11000
Kevin Streelman +12000
Patrick Rodgers +12000
Mark Hubbard +13000
Lanto Griffin +13000
Kramer Hickok +13000
Nick Hardy +13000
Lee Hodges +13000
Charley Hoffman +13000
Matthew NeSmith +13000
Dylan Frittelli +14000
Troy Merritt +14000
Joseph Bramlett +14000
Russell Knox +15000
Kevin Chappell +15000
Kazuki Higa +15000
Lucas Glover +15000
Scott Piercy +16000
Matthias Schwab +16000
Cameron Champ +16000
Henrik Norlander +16000
Ben Taylor +16000
Callum Tarren +16000
Chad Ramey +16000
Adam Long +16000
Greyson Sigg +16000
Matthias Schmid +16000
Michael Kim +18000
Martin Laird +18000
MJ Daffue +18000
Michael Thompson +19000

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