Saturday, February 24, 2024

Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ 4 value plays for Sunday’s cards

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Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Value Picks

12:25 Fairyhouse – OSE PARTIR 
12.55 Fairyhouse – STREET VALUE
15.00 Leicester – INFLEXIBLE
15:10 Fairyhouse – FOXY GIRL 

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Last year this race introduced us to the brilliant Lossiemouth who put her nine rivals to the sword in impressive style and of course the market will be a good guide to the three newcomers all from the Tony Martin school of shrewdness. It is hard to tell which of these has the best form on offer, but Nurgburgring’s second (placings reversed) behind Woodhooh at Listowel would be the pick of many. He ‘won’ that day despite a horrendous leap at the last hurdle and then wandering around like a drunk on a stag night on the run-in. Fairly experienced on the flat (rated 96 over a mile and a quarter) I don’t think you could put that down to greenness and if there is a value alternative to this son of Zoffany it is probably the Martin Brassil trained entry OSE PARTIR.

He takes on Kaleosun again after being beaten a length and a quarter at Galway in a maiden hurdle. I have upgraded the selections’ run there as he made a serious mistake at the first flight and was way too keen early on. He also lost momentum when not getting a clear run down the home lane that day and with that experience behind him has every chance of reversing the placings. The Willie Mullins’ trained Batman Girac has reportedly been working nicely at home and is rated just behind the stable’s Salvador Mundi (due out over Christmas). The one worry is that he makes his Irish debut with a first time hood on; it could be something, but it could be nothing at all.

Some really dour stayers have won this competitive and valuable handicap chase down through the years. What a disappointment that Gordon has only four of the entries (may be the race isn’t valuable enough for him to have eight plus in the field) and his lightly raced Minella Crooner, with more improvement to come, could be the best of the quartet. However, he has been priced accordingly and there are several each-way and value alternatives worth a second look. Velvet Elvis had his number here in February, but hasn’t really gone on from that smooth victory, while Sir Bob and Call The Tune (first and second in the Cork National) renew their rivalry, both likely to be at the sharp end throughout. Glenquin Castle, The Little Yank, Dior Ker and Everglow behind that afternoon.

However, I have long thought that a thorough stamina test would suit STREET VALUE and I am happy to ignore his run at Carlisle where he never seemed to be going from the off. His price more than makes up for his sometimes iffy jumping, but off his featherweight and on the deep ground to boot I fancy a clearish round will see his bottomless stamina come into play under the perfect partner, the never say die and brilliant Danny Mullins.

Ballycamus is an interesting chasing debutant off top weight. He was rated as high as 113 over hurdles (two wins from 12 outings) yet starts his fencing career off a one pound higher mark. There is no doubt that he has the make and shape to become an above average chaser, but on this occasion I am going to pass him over in favour of the Tom George charge INFLEXIBLE. His top mark over timber was 119, but he has experienced little racing even for a five-year-old and he looks as though he may have endured some minor problems.

The deep ground certainly won’t prove a problem for this ex-French trained gelding and I thought he was given a lovely educational introduction to this game when down the field at Warwick which is a tough test for novice chases. Unfortunately he made some niggly mistakes early on and a more significant one at the 11th, after which JJ schooled him around. With the benefit of that run I expect a big step up here and he looks the viable, value alternative.

I couldn’t play in the Hatton’s Grace as I simply couldn’t find a value edge so this was the logical fourth race to try and dissect. I thought that the promising Carl Millar handled Magic Tricks beautifully at Down Royal last month and a follow up is on the cards here off and a 7lbs penalty is fair enough. Further down the weights, Common Practice is becoming better treated, while Flamborough was impressive at Cork and a mark of 123 is very fair having run well in Listed company and a rapid run race will suit the chestnut gelding down to the ground. But Rachael Blackmore is entrusted with the tip on this lightly raced four-year-old as the mare was a huge eye catcher behind the aforementioned Magic Tricks and has a 5lbs pull in the weights here. I thought she ran a better race than her finishing position suggested in the Mares Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (slow early pace meant she didn’t settle) and having gone off at 13/2 there, she could well be a major blot on the handicap here off 125 even if she may not fit the usual profile for a ‘value bet’ selection, but I simply cannot let her go unbacked here.

Sunday’s racing tips

12:25 Fairyhouse – OSE PARTIR 
12.55 Fairyhouse – STREET VALUE
15.00 Leicester – INFLEXIBLE
15:10 Fairyhouse – FOXY GIRL 

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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