Friday, December 8, 2023

Lamar Jackson To Patriots? How Blockbuster Would Improve New England’s Odds

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The AFC East would be historically loaded

Former MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson wants out of Baltimore and says he’s ready to bring a team to the Super Bowl. According to oddsmakers, the Patriots have a shot at being that team.

Jackson put out a series of tweets Monday, detailing a recent trade request, including the following:

“As of March 2nd I requested a trade from the Ravens organization for which the Ravens has not been interested in meeting my value, any and everyone that’s has met me or been around me know I love the game of football and my dream is to help a team win the super bowl.”

PointsBet Sportsbook opened odds in January for “Lamar Jackson next team” with the Patriots listed as the third favorite (+600) behind the Jets (+300) and Falcons (+400). They reopened odds around March 22 and the Patriots were listed with the second-shortest odds (+300) behind the Indianapolis Colts (+200) to land the Ravens’ quarterback.

A quick update from PointsBet on Monday morning saw the Colts holding strong as the favorite (+225) followed by the Patriots again at +450.

Jackson is trying to assert the leverage he has — with no agent — and there seems to be one thing on his mind: money. He is currently under a non-exclusive franchise tag which means he can be traded if Baltimore doesn’t match a new offer. Whoever lands Jackson would have to give up two first-round draft picks, at least, in addition to a salary that likely approaches $50 million a year.

The Patriots’ most notable recent moves that impacted their 2023 salary cap space were signing wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster to a three-year, $25.5 million deal as well as agreeing to a two-year $20 million deal with cornerback Jonathan Jones. Along with these moves came a handful of other transactions to bolster the roster, including the hiring of Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator. This 2023 team is arguably more enticing to join for any quarterback, compared to last year. However, the Patriots don’t quite have a ton of cap space to work with and Jackson seems to be more concerned about his own pockets than the pieces around him.

Money aside, it’s likely New England fans would excitedly welcome the new quarterback. Regardless of your opinion on Mac Jones, there’s no denying Jackson takes this team to a new level. Just how much? BetMGM’s senior trader Halvor Egeland says the Patriots’ odds to win the AFC East would go from +750 to +260 if they were to land the Ravens’ QB. With the expectation of Aaron Rodgers going to the Jets, Egeland says the division odds would look something like this:

Bills +150
Jets +220
Patriots +260
Dolphins +700

As for the AFC title, the Patriots’ odds would get cut in half: from 20-1 to 10-1. To win it all, their odds would cut down even more than half — from 66-1 to 30-1. Their win total would be pushed up from 7.5 to 9.5, slightly juiced to the over.

I don’t recommend putting any significant money on a bet purely based on rumors and hypotheticals, but we have seen Belichick make surprising moves in the past. If you think there is a possibility Jackson joins New England at some point this season, now would be the time to put down a little to win a lot and get the Patriots in your 2023 NFL betting portfolio.

Thumbnail photo via Brian Fluharty/USA TODAY Sports Images

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