Nets vs. Heat Odds
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
This is an important game for both teams who are separated by just a half game in the Eastern Conference standings. The Heat already passed the Nets in the standings, a win tonight could give the Heat some cushion as they look to avoid the play-in.
Let’s take a look at the matchup and find a betting pick for Nets vs. Heat.
There are only nine games left for the Nets as they look to close out what has been an up and down season both on and off the court. Brooklyn is currently seventh in the East and facing the prospect of hosting the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game in the NBA Play-In Tournament. (At one point the Nets were as high as the second second in the east, that must seem like years ago to Nets head coach Jacque Vaughn.)
Despite the turmoil and recent poor play the Nets will more than likely find themselves in the playoffs if they can stabilize. The Nets are 8-15 straight up since Feb. 1, only the Pistons, Spurs and Rockets have fewer wins in that span. What’s interesting is in spite of that poor record the Nets are 13-10 ATS in that time frame. Only the Kings, Celtics, Sixers and Knicks have more ATS wins in that period.
Public perception is causing the Nets to be undervalued at the betting window — they are losing the games, but covering the spread — so they have been profitable despite their struggles. On average Brooklyn is a 5.5 point underdog, which is right around their number tonight on South Beach.
Brooklyn’s current losing streak features a pair of losses to the Cavaliers, as well as losses vs. the Thunder, Kings, and Nuggets. To be fair all of those teams are in the playoff picture. Tonight the Nets face a Heat team they have beaten twice this season and I expect Brooklyn will be ready to compete with their backs getting closer to the wall.
There has been a lot of national discussion about the Nets’ tumultuous season, but through it all the Nets are a half game behind Miami in the standings, so what’s the Heat excuse?
It feels as if Miami should be a better team than their record says they are. Yes, the Heat are playing well now, but they have the fewest wins for any division leading team in the league, and it’s not even close. That’s concerning.
Just like the Nets, the Heat also have their backs to the wall. To their credit they have responded well recently mainly due to the play of Jimmy Butler. He has proven once and again that he can carry this team; if it wasn’t for him the Heat would likely be a lottery team.
Over the past four weeks the Heat are 8-6 straight up and 6-8 ATS. They have been pulling out games they need to win in order to move up the standings. Betting on them has been hit or miss, though. As favorites, the Miami Heat are 19-33-3 ATS (second-worst in the NBA) and as home favorites they are 11-22-2 ATS (worst in the NBA). Backing the Heat as favorites has been a losing bet all season.
Injuries will play a small part here: Brooklyn will be without Ben Simmons and Seth Curry, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin are questionable for Miami. But the key players on both sides are expected to play.
Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS in their past eight road games and I expect that trend to hold up tonight. Not only do I like the Nets to cover the spread tonight, I’m going to sprinkle the moneyline as well.
Pick: Nets +6
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