Saturday, February 24, 2024

NFL Player Props You Should Be Betting on Week 13: Picks Include Amon-Ra St. Brown, Derrick Henry, D’Andre Swift, and Others

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With a 10-game slate today before the Sunday Night Football game, which NFL player props should you target? Check out our favorite player prop bets for today below, with picks for players such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, and others.

Week 13 NFL Player Prop Bets

D’Andre Swift Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Blewis: I’m running it back with D’Andre Swift after I gave out the over on his rushing + receiving yards line last week which hit.

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As I have mentioned before, this Philadelphia  Eagles rushing attack is far better when interior offensive lineman Cam Jurgens is in the lineup instead of Sua Opeta. When Opeta started for an injured Jurgens from Weeks 5-8, Swift averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. If you take away those four weeks, Swift would be averaging 5.5 yards per carry for the season instead of 4.8.

I also think the Eagles will lean more on their run game in this matchup to keep their defense off the field after they played 95 snaps last week. Against a San Francisco 49ers defense that is 24th in EPA/play and 25th in success rate in stopping the run, the Eagles should be able to run the ball on them.

George Kittle Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Blewis: The Eagles are the worst team by DVOA in defending tight ends this season, and they’ll be missing one of their starting linebackers in Zach Cunningham (plus Nakobe Dean who is on injured reserve). On top of that, this defense should be gassed after playing over 90 snaps last week.

George Kittle’s production can be inconsistent because there are so many mouths to feed on this 49ers offense, but he has gone over this number in four of his last five games, including two of the previous three since Deebo Samuel has returned.

Derrick Henry Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Blewis: This line feels extremely low when you consider the short spread in a divisional matchup — you would think the Tennessee Titans would be major underdogs here, but this game is close to a pick ’em.

For the season, the Indianapolis Colts allow the 26th-most rushing yards per game. A big reason for this has been the suspension of DT Grover Stewart, the fifth-best interior defensive lineman at stopping the run this season according to PFF grades.

Before Stewart was out, they were the 14th-ranked run defense by EPA/play and 21st by success rate. Since then, they have been 31st in both categories. Stewart was active for the first game between these two teams when Derrick Henry was held to 43 yards on 13 carries. Henry told the media that “43 yards makes you want to cringe,” so he could be extra motivated in his second go-around against the Colts this season.

Another factor working in our favor here is that this will be a Titans home game, where Henry has been much more effective this season. At home, Henry has averaged 94.8 rushing yards per game on 4.35 yards per carry. On the road, those averages plummet to 43.8 yards per game on 3.42 yards per carry.

Brock Purdy Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-129 at Caesars)

Katz: Apparently, road Brock Purdy and home Brock Purdy are things. I’m just not sure I buy it. Purdy has only thrown multiple touchdown passes in five games this year, but it doesn’t get much easier than an Eagles defense that is the second-worst in the NFL against the pass.

The Eagles just gave up 34 points to the Buffalo Bills last week. Josh Allen threw two touchdowns against them in an epic shootout. I think we could see something similar this week.

Sam Howell Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-110 at DraftKings)

Katz: The Washington Commanders may not be a particularly good team, but they don’t give up. Whereas plenty of other teams fall behind and just run the ball and go home, the Commanders throw, throw, and throw some more.

Sam Howell has attempted at least 42 passes in six consecutive games. The Commanders are heavy underdogs again this week. They should be trailing, and thus throwing. Look for Slingin’ Sammy to toss up the rock another 40+ times again.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 7.5 Receptions (+120 at DraftKings)

Katz: For the Detroit Lions passing game, you just need to know two things. 1) It is always Amon-Ra St. Brown. 2) It is never not Amon-Ra St. Brown.

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St. Brown has seen at least nine targets in six straight games. He’s caught at least eight passes in five of those six.

The Lions’ passing game runs through ARSB. Getting plus-odds for him to catch eight balls is good enough for me.

Tim Boyle Under 177.5 Passing Yards, 2u (-114 at FanDuel)

Katz: This is easily my favorite bet of the slate. Tim Boyle played unfathomably bad football last week. He was well on his way to sailing under his passing yardage projection, but a Darrynton Evans fumble opened the floodgates for a volume-filled garbage-time throw fest.

Boyle attempted 29 passes in the second half last week. Here is why I don’t anticipate that happening again. I think Boyle is getting benched at halftime. There’s no way he’s going over this number in the first half. And if he plays as poorly as I think he will, I expect the New York Jets to turn to Trevor Siemian in the second half, making this a sweat-free cash.

Adam Thielen Over 5.5 Receptions (-115 at DraftKings)

Katz: Last week, Adam Thielen had his worst game of the season, catching one of three targets for two yards. Before that, Thielen caught at least six passes in eight of his previous nine games.

I am buying into the fired-coach narrative a bit here. I think the Carolina Panthers come out and play inspired football and look much more competent offensively. While they’d probably prefer their offense not run through a 33-year-old wide receiver, he’s still the best they’ve got.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a pass-funnel defense. They allow 14.0 receptions per game to wide receivers, the seventh-most in the league. They also allow the second-most yardage to wide receivers. Thielen should have no trouble clearing six receptions.

Puka Nacua Under 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Katz: The Puka Nacua dream rookie season has hit a bit of a wall. He’s gone over 43 yards in just one of his previous four games and just two of his last six.

Cooper Kupp is not producing either, but Kupp merely being in the lineup relegates Nacua to Matthew Stafford’s second target. That is not ideal in one of the most difficult matchups for wide receivers.

The Browns allow just 117 yards per game to wide receivers, the third-fewest in the league. Their 8.5 receptions per game allowed to wide receivers is the best mark in the league.

Josh Downs Over 4.5 Receptions (-125 at BetMGM)

Katz: Last week, Josh Downs caught five passes. It was the first time he reached that mark in three games, but we need context to understand why.

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Downs was dealing with a knee injury in his previous two games and wasn’t playing his usual complement of snaps. Last week, he was back to his usual primary slot role, and he saw a whopping 13 targets.

Before the knee injury, Downs had caught at least five passes in four consecutive games. Now, he gets a Titans defense that is more vulnerable against the pass than run. They allow 14.4 receptions per game to wide receivers, the fourth-most in the league. They especially struggle against the slot, where Downs primarily operates.

As a bonus, I also think Downs scores this week.

Elijah Moore Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Katz: I can’t be the only one who thinks Joe Flacco is an upgrade for the Cleveland Browns’ passing attack, can I? While the 38-year-old former Super Bowl MVP is no longer elite, he did start the first three games for the Jets last season. In those games, he threw for 309, 307, and 285 yards.

The Browns aren’t suddenly going to air it out. But can Flacco hit up Elijah Moore 2-3 times for 34+ yards? I think so. It also doesn’t hurt that they have a prior rapport from their time on the Jets.

Moore amassed 49, 41, and 49 yards in Flacco’s three starts last season. He’s also totaled at least 44 receiving yards in his last three games this season.

The Los Angeles Rams are a middle-of-the-pack defense against wide receivers. There should be enough volume for Moore to hit this number.

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