The Bills are fighting for their playoff lives, and the Chiefs still own a slim edge as the betting favorite to win the AFC Championship. That’s why Sunday’s Bills vs. Chiefs game is so pivotal as teams jockey for playoff position.
The Ravens and Dolphins are in close pursuit of the Chiefs for AFC supremacy. Here we examine AFC Championship odds and how they could be impacted by Bills-Chiefs.
Live AFC Championship odds at top-rated sportsbooks
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Top contenders to win AFC Championship
The Chiefs (8-4) are a slim -point home favorite to beat the Bills (6-6) on Sunday. At BetMGM, Kansas City has the highest amount of tickets (13.6%) to win the AFC Championship. Buffalo owns the highest handle (18.5%) to capture the AFC title.
Kansas City isn’t playing its best football of late, as it comes off a 27-19 loss at Green Bay. The Chiefs have dropped three of their last six games.
Kansas City comes into Sunday’s game banged up, as RBs Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) and Jerick McKinnon (groin) are both questionable. Buffalo needs to at least split its next two games against K.C. and Dallas to have a shot at making the playoffs.
The Chiefs have a relatively soft schedule after the Bills:
- Chiefs at Patriots
- Raiders at Chiefs
- Bengals at Chiefs
- Chiefs at Chargers
That said, the offense has been out of sync for much of the year. Kansas City leads the league in dropped passes with 32. This crucial drop by Marquez Valdes-Scantling cost K.C. a victory at Philadelphia.
Chiefs had a chance to score the go-ahead TD on this play 😬 pic.twitter.com/lFR4oMLOna
— ESPN (@espn) November 21, 2023
Mahomes has continually covered for his receivers by refusing to criticize them publicly, but this has been a persistent problem. We’re betting against the Chiefs hosting a sixth consecutive AFC Championship game this season.
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Baltimore comes off its bye week (9-3) to host the Rams. Baltimore is two games clear of the Steelers and Browns in the AFC North, and neither of those teams are currently as good as their 7-5 record suggests.
Mitch Trubisky and Joe Flacco don’t inspire much hope for a playoff push. Bottom line: It’d require a huge collapse by Baltimore to not win the division. Nobody runs the ball better than the Ravens, who’ve amassed a league-best 1,903 rushing yards and 22 TDs on the ground.
On defense, Baltimore has given up the fewest TDs (16) of any team this season. Only Cleveland allows fewer total yards per game. We haven’t even mentioned Lamar Jackson’s name yet.
The Ravens are our best bet to win the AFC Championship for the first time since 2012.
Miami’s in the catbird seat to win the AFC East. The Dolphins (9-3) lead the Bills by three games in the standings while the Jets (4-8) and Patriots (2-10) can look forward to next year.
Miami has displayed a propensity for beating bad teams badly. On the flip side, the Dolphins have yet to prove they can win against the NFL’s top-tier teams. Take a look at their losses this season:
- Bills 48 Dolphins 20
- Eagles 31 Dolphins 17
- Chiefs 21 Dolphins 14
The next two games aren’t likely to tell us much about Miami’s mettle. The Titans and Jets are lesser foes. But the Dolphins can prove their worth against the Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills in the season’s final three games. Buffalo waxed Miami by four TDs, so there should be a revenge factor at work in the season finale.
AFC Championship betting analysis
Consider betting the Ravens to win the AFC Championship at current odds heading into Week 14. Similar to San Francisco, Baltimore appears to be the most complete team on offense and defense in its conference.