Sunday, February 25, 2024

Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 28

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Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let’s see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.

Wolves vs Leeds

Leeds to Win (+250)
Draw (+210)

Wolves are four points ahead of Leeds in the table, but with Leeds having a game in hand, the gap between the two teams is minimal. Leeds are even ahead of Wolves in goal difference (-11, compared to -17) and expected goal difference (xGD), where they are at -6.8 compared to -12.7.

Both teams are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 matches, so there is not much separating the teams in terms of form. Leeds are coming off a 2-2 draw with seventh-place Brighton, but Wolves did defeat Tottenham in early March, so they have both gotten recent results against quality opponents. There is really not much to differentiate these two teams, so Leeds are a potential play due to their underdog odds.

Southampton vs Tottenham

Tottenham to Win (-130)

Southampton are currently in last place in the league with a 6-4-17 record, so they are only getting a result in 37% of their matches against all EPL teams. This game provides a difficult challenge; Tottenham are currently in fourth place and are clearly an above-average EPL side.

Southampton are 0-2-4 against the current top 5 in the table, and they already lost to Spurs 4-1 earlier in the season. It is no surprise the worst team in the league struggles against good opponents, but it is surprising that Spurs are such modest favorites against a potentially overmatched opponent.

Brentford vs Leicester

Brentford to Win (-105)

Leicester are having a disappointing season, and they are only ahead of the relegation zone on goal difference with just 24 points from 27 matches. They have also lost their last 4 games and have been outscored 8-1 over that stretch, including a 1-0 loss to Southampton.

On the other side, Brentford are having a good season at 10-11-5, and they are even more impressive at home with a 7-5-1 record in home matches. Brentford have a +6.6 xGD compared to -10.1 for Leicester, so Brentford are well ahead in both the table and the predictive metrics.

Brentford at almost even odds is a tantalizing bet.

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