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The top overall seed Alabama Crimson Tide face off against the No. 5 seed San Diego State Aztecs in Louisville for the right to advance to the Elite Eight. This Sweet 16 South Region matchup has the Crimson Tide favored by 8 points, according to the top sports betting apps in the country.
Superstar Brandon Miller leads a loaded Alabama team into this game. Miller’s off-court issues are well-documented and his tournament play is a bit choppy through two games. He went scoreless, going 0-for-5 from the field in 19 minutes, in Bama’s opening round blowout win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christie and scored 19 points on 5-for-17 shooting vs. Maryland in the second round. Still, he showed flashes of why he’s likely to be a top-5 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft and leads Alabama with 19.1 points per game and 8.2 rebounds per game.
San Diego State is led by fifth-year super-senior Matt Bradley. While Miller looks and plays like a prototypical NBA wing, Bradley is more like an NFL tight end, fitting perfectly into San Diego State’s physical style of play. He leads a deep Aztecs team at 13.0 PPG.
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Betting Picks For San Diego State vs. Alabama
Alabama is favored by 8 points on Caesars Sportsbook, with a total of 135.5.
Scoring will be at a relative premium as Alabama ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, according to KenPom, allowing just 88.1 points per 100 possessions, while San Diego State ranks fifth with a 90.7 AdjDE.
Alabama does everything well on the defensive end. Just 30.1% of their opponents’ field goal attempts come from beyond the arc, the 11th lowest ratio in the 358 team NCAA Division 1 pool, and Crimson Tide opponents have an Effective Field Goal percentage of 41.3% per KenPom — the best defensive mark in the nation. San Diego State isn’t much worse, allowing a 28.7% three-point percentage and a 46.9% EFG percentage.
The contrast is more stark on offense where the teams differ stylistically. Alabama pushes the pace with an average possession length of 15.3 seconds and an adjusted tempo of 72.6 possessions per game, both top six nationally. The Aztecs will want to slow that down as they play at a 65.9 possession per game pace. Further, the Crimson Tide attempt 47.5% of their field goals from beyond the arc while San Diego State takes threes on just 34.1% of their shots.
The Aztecs will surely try to muck it up and get Alabama in a slower, more physical game. San Diego State grades out well, but simply haven’t faced anywhere close to the level of competition in the Mountain West that Alabama did in the SEC. San Diego State went 5-5 vs. Quad 1 opponents while the Crimson Tide were 13-5.
Alabama has too much talent and the Crimson Tide are the top overall team for a reason. Look for them to impose their will and cover the 8-point spread.
How Do I Bet On San Diego State vs. Alabama?
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