Friday, December 8, 2023

XFL Odds, Picks & Predictions – XFL Week 6

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Week 6 of the XFL season concludes on a Sunday with a matchup between San Antonio and Arlington. Read more to find out where the best betting angle lies for a Brahmas-Renegades matchup that is sure to be an offensive slog.

The XFL begins the second half of the regular season with another full slate of games.

As always, there are four games on tap for this weekend. One difference is that this week features a Monday night showdown between the Houston Roughnecks and D.C. Defenders, which we here at Covers will preview in full later this week. 

Let’s first examine the two Saturday games and the lone Sunday game to determine the best bet for each. 

Check out our XFL betting picks and predictions for Week 6 below.

XFL picks for Week 6

Picks made on 3/23/2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Week 6 XFL odds and predictions

Seattle Sea Dragons vs Orlando Guardians

Saturday, 1:00 pm ET, ABC/ESPN+

Seattle Sea Dragons Orlando Guardians 
-9.5 (-110) Spread +9.5 (-110)
-300 Moneyline +320
Over 42.5 (-110) Total Under 42.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 23

The Seattle Sea Dragons (3-2) hold the league’s second-longest winning streak at three games. They’ll put that to the test against a moribund Orlando Guardians (0-5) team seeking its first taste of victory despite the regular season already being halfway over. 

Seattle started slow with two straight defeats but has answered the bell in recent weeks. Jim Haslett’s squad got its first victory on a late touchdown in Week 3 against the Vegas Vipers and hasn’t looked back since, notching a 15-6 win over the San Antonio Brahmas in Week 4 and handing Houston its first loss a week ago by a score of 21-14. The offense makes great use of arguably the league’s best group of wide receivers, helmed by Jahcour Pearson, who ranks first in the XFL in receptions and receiving yards. 

Orlando sits in the league’s basement without a single win to its name. That being said, Quinten Dormady looked great at quarterback a week ago by completing 22 of his 25 pass attempts for 256 yards and two touchdowns. The offense seems to have found a spark with him under center and it’s not unrealistic to expect them to find the endzone in this matchup after posting 32 points on Vegas a week ago and 349 yards on arguably the league’s best defense (Houston) the week before.

Orlando’s defense is an unmitigated disaster. The Guardians have surrendered a league-high 152 points through five games — “good” for 30.4 points per game. Seattle has had a bit of a turnover problem offensively as quarterback Ben DiNucci leads the league in both interceptions (7) and fumbles (5). That’s capped their total points in some matchups, but this matchup is too good for me to expect a depressed scoring outcome. 

The Sea Dragons lead the league with 262.4 passing yards per game and rank second in rushing yards with 89.2 per game. They’re bound to find the end zone here and I’ll be taking the Over with my best bet as the Guardian’s offense has been productive in the last two weeks and could improve under Dormady. 

Pick: Over 42.5 (-110 at bet365)

St. Louis Battlehawks vs Vegas Vipers

Saturday, 7:00 pm ET, FX/ESPN+

St. Louis Battlehawks Vegas Vipers
-3 (-110) Spread +3 (-110)
-155 Moneyline +135
Over 44.5 (-110) Total Under 44.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 23.

The second game of the weekend sees the St. Louis Battlehawks (3-2) travel to Vegas to face the Vipers (1-4). St. Louis games have generally been appointment television, as quarterback A.J. McCarron routinely leads his team to exciting comebacks. 

The Battlehawks’ only two losses this season have come against D.C. and considering the Defenders are the league’s only remaining undefeated team at 5-0, how much can we hold that against St. Louis? Probably not much. Anthony Becht’s squad looked good in impressive victories over the Arlington Renegades in Week 4 and Seattle in Week 2, and they really turned on the jets in Week 1’s comeback win over San Antonio.

Those three victories are all more impressive than anything Vegas has done this year. The Vipers’ lone win came by three points a week ago against the league’s worst team (Orlando). Although the Vipers are the home team, they arguably have the XFL’s worst home-field advantage and have lost twice on their home turf already. 

McCarron isn’t perfect, but most people would tell you that he ranks among the league’s better quarterbacks and he has a star wide receiver to throw to in former Iowa State Cyclone Hakeem Butler. The 6-5 wideout has the second-most receptions (30) and third-most receiving yards in the league (336) and looks unguardable in most games. Running back Brian Hill leads an effective ground game. The former Wyoming Cowboy paces the league with 5.2 yards per carry — an impressive figure considering most teams in the league struggle to move the ball with any consistency on the ground. 

I believe that St. Louis should be able to find the end zone on the road against a poor Vegas defense. The Vipers haven’t played an impressive game yet to my eyes, while the Battlehawks have done so numerous times. That’s enough for me to lay the points with the road favorite. 

Pick: St. Louis -3 (+100 at FanDuel)

San Antonio Brahmas vs Arlington Renegades

Sunday, 3:00 pm ET, ABC/ESPN+

San Antonio Brahmas Arlington Renegades
+3 (-115) Spread -3 (-105)
+140 Moneyline -165
Over 33 (-110) Total Under 33 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 23.

Consider this one a game between two wholly underwhelming offenses. Arlington ranks last in passing yards per game (136.8) on a gross 4.8 yards per attempt, while San Antonio is next-to-last (139.2) on an even grosser 4.5 yards per attempt. “Alright,” you say, “then both teams must have productive rushing offenses then, right? Right?”. That’s not the case either — Arlington ranks last in rushing yards per game (71.6) and yards per carry (3.2) while San Antonio is second-to-last in both categories with 74.4 yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. 

These teams played a week ago and combined for just 22 points in a 12-10 Renegades win. The Brahmas simply couldn’t generate any offense when they needed to, which has been quite a prevailing theme this season. Jack Coan returns under center after Reid Sinnett started last week’s game only to break his foot after some promising early returns. 

By now you probably think that my best bet for this game will be on the Under. While that’s logical thinking, the conclusion would be incorrect. I can’t fault anyone for targeting the Under in what’s likely to be a low-scoring game, but that’s simply not a play I can make with a total set all the way down at 32.5. A pick-six, fumble return for a touchdown, or a splash special teams play would put that number in jeopardy regardless of both offenses’ performances. I definitely wouldn’t fault anyone for taking the Under, but I’ll instead take the points with the Underdog in a game that I view as a low-scoring coin flip — just like last week. 

Brahmas head coach Hines Ward said that his team wants payback after losing on their home field a week ago. They get the chance to do so here in Arlington against a Renegades squad that has looked disappointing since the get-go and has relied on takeaways from the defense for most of its victories. PFF grades San Antonio as the better team overall and I don’t see any reason why that wouldn’t be the case considering both offenses struggle and both defenses are above average — there simply isn’t a lot separating these teams. Give me the underdog. 

Pick: San Antonio +3 (-110 at bet365)

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